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April 11, 2009 8:52 PM From NWS Shreveport ...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SUNDAY... Well, folks, just 3 days after the last event, it looks like we could have another round of severe storms on Easter Sunday. As always, feel free to send me an email if you have any questions. We do not plan on doing a conference call tomorrow morning at this time. Tomorrow is a long time off, though (at least weatherwise). If it looks like things have changed tomorrow morning, I will send out the details and conduct a conference call. Location of Greatest Severe Weather Risk -- South of a Jacksonville, Texas to Columbia, Louisiana line. Main Risks -- Large hail and damaging winds. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially from Toledo Bend Country through Central Louisiana. Time of Main Concern -- Noon to 8 pm Sunday. Discussion -- A strong storm system will move out of the Desert Southwest and into the Four State Region by Sunday morning. Showers, and maybe even a few thunderstorms, will likely develop this evening across East Texas, gradually spreading across the remainder of the area overnight. A warm front is expected to lift northward toward IH-20 around noon Sunday, increasing the amount of unstable air across much of the region. Severe thunderstorms may develop across the Four State Region as the strong storm system interacts with this environment. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire Four State Region under a slight risk for severe weather as of 12:10 PM Saturday. They are especially concerned about the possibility of tornadoes south and east of a Jacksonville, Texas to El Dorado, Arkansas line due to strong low-level wind shear (change in wind direction/speed with height). While this concern is valid, we feel that the amount of cloud cover and rain will limit how far north the warm front will move and thus, how unstable we will get. Because of this, we feel the greatest risk for seeing severe weather will remain south of a Jacksonville, Texas to Columbia, Louisiana line. However, if the amount of cloud cover or rain is not as great as we expect, we will likely see another round of severe thunderstorms. There is a real risk of seeing tornadoes if we can lift the warm front north and get unstable air into the area. Strong low-level wind shear and forcing area there; we're just lacking the instability. Regardless, very cold temperatures about 2 miles upstairs in the atmosphere will lead to the risk of seeing some hail producing thunderstorms over the entire Four State Region. Besides the severe weather risk, copious amounts of moisture will be present. As the storm system moves across the region, up to 2 inches of rain is expected to fall just about everywhere. A few spots, especially near the IH-20 corridor, could see up to 3 inches of rain by the time it's over. The storm system should move east of the region Sunday night, with lingering cloud cover and light rain in the forecast into Monday. We'll continue to look at things and fine tune the forecast a bit. Like I said before, let me know if you have any questions. Take care! Doug A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE FOUR STATE REGION. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TEXAS TO COLUMBIA LOUISIANA LINE. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTH ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. LATER FORECASTS WILL BETTER DEFINE THE TIMING AND WHAT...IF ANY...SEVERE WEATHER RISK EXISTS. |
