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March 11, 2009 from NWS SHV We are in for a cold and rainy several days. A cold arctic high has built south out of Canada and pushed a front through the area this morning. Above the cold air, warm moist air from both the pacific and Gulf of Mexico is riding up and over the colder air at the surface. The result will be off and on light to moderate rainfall over the next 5 days with periods of heavier rain. The timing of the heavier rain event will coincide with the passing of these waves aloft….one of which is moving through Northeast Texas now. There will be some breaks in the rainfall as upper level disturbances move across the area out of old Mexico in the southwest flow aloft. We spoke with the River Forecast Center this morning and given that the area has been drier than normal the past 2 months and that the rainfall will be spread out over a longer duration, we don’t expect any significant flooding problems. There will likely be some minor flooding on area rivers and streams but mainly on the smaller ones and in the usual places. In terms of flash flooding, we might only see isolated flash flooding with some of these heavier episodes but again, the threat is going to be isolated.
Given that this is an arctic airmass, there will be an outside chance of rain mixing with sleet across McCurtain, Sevier, and Howard counties Thur night and Friday morning. However, we don’t expect anything significant and the ground is warm enough to melt anything that falls. Total rainfall amounts may approach 6 inches in some locations before this event is over. I’ve attached a graphic of the 5 day forecast rainfall through Monday morning as of this morning. To keep up with the latest national guidance on rainfall, please refer to either HPC or the LMRFC for the latest rainfall Forecast: HPC:
LMRFC:
Some websites you can use to monitor rainfall amounts Daily rainfall: http://water.weather.gov near real time hourly rainfall: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_hourly.php NWS Shreveport Updates: Download latest weather briefings from NWS Shreveport NWS Jackson Updates: |
